Great post. I came up with exactly the same map earlier.
One of the worrying things about Cohn's latest analysis was him finding late-deciders in the Rust Belt breaking 60/40 for Trump (against 66/34 for Harris in the Sun Belt). A closer race up there cuts against Selzer's findings among white voters in that part of the Midwest/Great Plains too. So plenty of evidence from smart people that is hard to reconcile.
cohn also says there is a growing republican nonresponse bias in these polls and they have been trying to account for that. if a significant portion of that are republican harris voters, then it biases all the answers they do get towards trump.
pleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberight
To quote myself - "You may regret having read this post, should you be pro-Harris, for which my future apologies "
It's the hope that kills me....
Great post. I came up with exactly the same map earlier.
One of the worrying things about Cohn's latest analysis was him finding late-deciders in the Rust Belt breaking 60/40 for Trump (against 66/34 for Harris in the Sun Belt). A closer race up there cuts against Selzer's findings among white voters in that part of the Midwest/Great Plains too. So plenty of evidence from smart people that is hard to reconcile.
cohn also says there is a growing republican nonresponse bias in these polls and they have been trying to account for that. if a significant portion of that are republican harris voters, then it biases all the answers they do get towards trump.
I'm similar - 309-229. My thinking is that it will be a handy EC margin based on some narrow wins for Harris in key states.
But of course, I am also profoundly sceptical of my own ability to predict, so expect Trump to win.
This is a very funny one to get suggested in March 2025.
Kind of a laughing/weeping situation, but still