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pleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberightpleaseberight

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To quote myself - "You may regret having read this post, should you be pro-Harris, for which my future apologies "

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It's the hope that kills me....

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Great post. I came up with exactly the same map earlier.

One of the worrying things about Cohn's latest analysis was him finding late-deciders in the Rust Belt breaking 60/40 for Trump (against 66/34 for Harris in the Sun Belt). A closer race up there cuts against Selzer's findings among white voters in that part of the Midwest/Great Plains too. So plenty of evidence from smart people that is hard to reconcile.

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cohn also says there is a growing republican nonresponse bias in these polls and they have been trying to account for that. if a significant portion of that are republican harris voters, then it biases all the answers they do get towards trump.

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I'm similar - 309-229. My thinking is that it will be a handy EC margin based on some narrow wins for Harris in key states.

But of course, I am also profoundly sceptical of my own ability to predict, so expect Trump to win.

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