5 Comments

This is a really good piece. I tend to think that it was due to the impossibility of shoring up the 2019 electoral coalition - which rather like the two Brexit supporting campaigns during the referendum - targeted people who had very little in common, either from a social, economic or cultural point of view. Maintaining that coalition would have taxed the most talented politicians of our time - and certainly exceeds the capacities of Rishi Sunak, who appears to be serious and honest.

I think there are specific factors that distinguish the rise of the right in the Danish and Norwegian (and indeed Swedish) examples. Many of the supporters of the centre-left did not want to see their countries economic or social models change, but did not support the very liberal immigration systems promoted by their countries since the 1970s.

Amending their attitudes to immigration prevented the nativist-populist parties supplanting existing centre-right parties in all three countries. Immigration is likely to remain a live issue for whoever wins the next election.

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Do you think that Biden will ultimately win from the centre or do you think that he is a fundamentally flawed candidate/there is a fundamental structural issue in US democracy itself that stops unfashionable concepts such as the median voter theorem from applying to the US election?

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I think the median voter theorem still applies, it's just that the median voter in America is very different from the median European.

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“Reform are right, vote conservative”

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This is brillaint and really, really interesting. Thank you.

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