I got it wrong too Ben for similar reasons to you. (I ran two successful election campaigns here in the UK so I do have some ability to read these things).
What I hadn't appreciated was how sorely people were feeling about the direction of the country and how deep seated this opinion was. And like you, I thought his ceiling on a good day was 47%, and with the shambolic campaign he ran, how was he going to achieve this?
I also wonder whether there were some signs that things weren't right.
- Obama seemed to get stressy out on the campaign trail; not at all Obama like.
- I started to have misgivings about Waltz' effectiveness on the campaign trail but thought my instincts might be off.
- I wondered about the wisdom of putting reproductive health at the centre of the campaign. This may have energised pro life voters; the ballots on abortion were closer than I expected.
Plus I really don't think we appreciated the Joe Rogan effect and this impact his podcast has had on men in particular.
Keep writing and let's work on how we can all move towards better insights and understanding over the coming years. For the people in the US, bring on November 2028. Which sounds like wishing away our future, our lives - which is so sad.
I am not sure you can claim the media is a working, efficient element in the democratic structure of the USA or the UK. It is heavily biassed towards the left and wokery in all its forms. The media there and here actively promotes big state, high taxes, more regulations, restrictions on free speach (unless it is their own) and control over access to public platforms.
Changes which are needed there and here to enhance democracy include improved voting rules so only those entitled to vote can do so (and not the head of household on their behalf), sever restrictions on lobbyists and pressure groups (especially but by no means exclusively overseas based ones), discipline of judges who seek to over ride democratic decisions and court rules generally to reduce lawfare.
I suggest the main reason for your error was your own prejudices. That is something a serious analyst cannot allow to dominate, despite what your friends might have thought of you. However, all credit for admitting your error as I have not heard that yet from HMG, BBC, etc.
Yes, I imagine we disagree on a number of the issues you raise but I'm pleased we can agree that noting when you are wrong and trying to interrogate your own prejudices is something we should all strike for.
Both you and Rory Stewart have just a little egg on your faces but please don’t let that get to you. Playing the Trump v. Harris was/is a game not really worth playing. Dominic Cummings, Im sure not your favourite person was nearer the mark 18 months ago.
As I’ve said before polling public opinion is right at the heart of what’s wrong with democracy. A subject close to your heart!
I’d say your fourth reason is the best. The last NBC News poll in September found that 65% of registered voters thought that the country is “on the wrong track”.
The challenger positioned himself as the candidate of change from the recent track, while the (de facto) incumbent did not. In those circumstances the challenger is likely to win.
I got it wrong too Ben for similar reasons to you. (I ran two successful election campaigns here in the UK so I do have some ability to read these things).
What I hadn't appreciated was how sorely people were feeling about the direction of the country and how deep seated this opinion was. And like you, I thought his ceiling on a good day was 47%, and with the shambolic campaign he ran, how was he going to achieve this?
I also wonder whether there were some signs that things weren't right.
- Obama seemed to get stressy out on the campaign trail; not at all Obama like.
- I started to have misgivings about Waltz' effectiveness on the campaign trail but thought my instincts might be off.
- I wondered about the wisdom of putting reproductive health at the centre of the campaign. This may have energised pro life voters; the ballots on abortion were closer than I expected.
Plus I really don't think we appreciated the Joe Rogan effect and this impact his podcast has had on men in particular.
Keep writing and let's work on how we can all move towards better insights and understanding over the coming years. For the people in the US, bring on November 2028. Which sounds like wishing away our future, our lives - which is so sad.
I am not sure you can claim the media is a working, efficient element in the democratic structure of the USA or the UK. It is heavily biassed towards the left and wokery in all its forms. The media there and here actively promotes big state, high taxes, more regulations, restrictions on free speach (unless it is their own) and control over access to public platforms.
Changes which are needed there and here to enhance democracy include improved voting rules so only those entitled to vote can do so (and not the head of household on their behalf), sever restrictions on lobbyists and pressure groups (especially but by no means exclusively overseas based ones), discipline of judges who seek to over ride democratic decisions and court rules generally to reduce lawfare.
I suggest the main reason for your error was your own prejudices. That is something a serious analyst cannot allow to dominate, despite what your friends might have thought of you. However, all credit for admitting your error as I have not heard that yet from HMG, BBC, etc.
Yes, I imagine we disagree on a number of the issues you raise but I'm pleased we can agree that noting when you are wrong and trying to interrogate your own prejudices is something we should all strike for.
Both you and Rory Stewart have just a little egg on your faces but please don’t let that get to you. Playing the Trump v. Harris was/is a game not really worth playing. Dominic Cummings, Im sure not your favourite person was nearer the mark 18 months ago.
As I’ve said before polling public opinion is right at the heart of what’s wrong with democracy. A subject close to your heart!
I’d say your fourth reason is the best. The last NBC News poll in September found that 65% of registered voters thought that the country is “on the wrong track”.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/two-thirds-voters-say-country-wrong-track-ahead-2024-election-rcna172873
The challenger positioned himself as the candidate of change from the recent track, while the (de facto) incumbent did not. In those circumstances the challenger is likely to win.
You saved me a day of stress